An important first step at the threshold of transformation (e.g., from combustion engines to e-mobility or from analog to digital photography) is to gain clarity about the stage of uncertainty that the project entails.
As a tool for this, I introduce Uncertainty Profiling, based on Michael Faschingsbauer’s concept (lecture at the Milton Erickson Institute).
Using these six categories, a project can be effectively assessed in terms of uncertainty. Each category represents a potential source of perceived uncertainty.
Some useful questions for categorization include:
Future
- What exactly determines the future?
- What is predictable? What is unpredictable?
- What conditions would make the future more plannable?
Goals
- How specifically are goals formulated, and by whom?
- Which stakeholder has what influence?
- Where do goal conflicts exist?
Change
- How fast are the framework conditions changing?
- Has the pace of change accelerated recently?
- Are sufficient resources available to adapt to changes in time?
Information
- What do different stakeholders say?
- Where do contradictions exist?
- How do others describe the situation?
Complexity
- How easily can the system’s behavior (responses, functions) be described?
- Is the application of best practices or good practices possible?
- What significance does complexity have for the client?
Forecasts
- What forecasts can be made?
- How accurate are these forecasts?
- What conclusions can we draw from the forecasts?
Uncertainty Profiling is also highly effective when used in groups (e.g., involving leadership teams). It helps create a shared understanding and a common language for the degree of uncertainty within a project.
At the same time, the different assessments by participants make diverse perspectives on uncertainty transparent and manageable.
Recent Comments